From: David Hickmott
[DHickmott@uli-atl.com]
Sent: Friday, April 25, 2008 7:30 AM
To: David Hickmott
Cc: David Hickmott; David Hickmott
Subject: Impact of Olympic Games in
2008
Dear
Valued Unique Customer,
We
have received several inquiries from customers about factory shut down in China
before/during/after the 2008 Olympics in Beijing. We have some research
by consulting with our offices in China in this regard. Please note the
following:
1)
We
do NOT have any official confirmation that China Government has ordered shut
down of factories within 200km (or even 500km). What we have heard is
that there is some information on what the Chinese governments' plans are
concerning the Olympics and air pollution.
2)
Six
provinces and municipalities -- Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shanxi,
Tianjin and Beijing -- have already started shutting down polluting factories
and curbing power-plant production in an ambitious attempt to cut down on air
pollution. The Chinese government has been concentrating on factories such as:
cement, paper, etc. and power-plants that produce high levels of sulfur-dioxide
which is a toxic pollutant.
3)
The
Chinese government has plans for some restriction of vehicles but as of now the
government has not announced the schedule and details. Analysts say
Chinese officials are reluctant to release details about the closures and
restrictions for fear of damping economic investment in northern China, particularly
in places such as Tianjin.
4)
For
air freight, some cargo flights will land in TSN (Tianjin Binhai International
Airport) during the Olympic Games such as Great Wall Airline,Galaxy Airline,
China Southern Airline and we expect there will be more cargo flights landing
in TSN but again, as of now we don't have details.
The distances between Peking (Beijing) and:
Qingdao: 343 miles
Tianjin: 71 miles
Dalian: 276 miles
Clearly
China is viewing this as chance to showcase the best they can offer to the
world and are planning on taking (or have already taken) steps to alter the
world perception. Several key initiatives and effects caused by the
Olympics will effect international transportation:
· CONGESTION: While Beijing is
not a port it is a large manufacturing area. Beijing maintains a leader
position in the manufacture of telecommunications equipment, metal smelting and
processing, raw and manufactured chemicals, and petroleum product refining and
manufacturing. The natural port of load for exports from the area around
Beijing is Tianjin (69 miles to the southeast), while there will definitely be
congestion around Beijing there will also be congestion around Tianjin as
Tianjin will be the host city for quite a few events of the Olympics.
Deliveries from Beijing to Tianjin will most definitely be delayed, since
that market is almost exclusively FOB driven the delays don’t directly effect
us but timely deliveries to the port will be a factor.
· HIGHER FUEL STANDARDS: China
introduced the “China IV” fuel standards to help reduce emissions, contrary to
earlier initiatives, the implementation of China IV is being enforced
rigorously by local officials. Difficulties in getting China IV compliant
fuel distributed to all stations is already leading to shortages but coupled
with increased demand during the Olympics may lead to trucking and delivery
delays to the ports..
· BUSINESS SHUT DOWNS: To
reduce pollution, the Chinese government has announced plans to close down
Beijing area manufacturing facilities at least 2 weeks prior to, and for the 3
weeks of the Olympics. There is also some speculation that weather
conditions present at the time of the Olympics may cause the shut down earlier.
The total shutdown of at least 5 weeks will first cause exceptionally
high demand prior to the Olympics (mid-June through late July) for space from
Tianjin, not only will the demand be high but it is likely that Tianjin will
overshoot their allocations which will cause a lack of space at other ports as
well (Qingdao, Shanghai). During the games the lack of manufacturing will
, of course, lead to a glut in space…but because a good deal of the raw
materials needed to manufacture finished goods are also made in the Beijing
area there will be a lull in demand immediately after the games as well.
We would
strongly suggest that you inform your customers that their vendors should book
early and that customers should adjust their internal schedules accordingly to
accommodate the potential for missed sailings. As we hear additional
information I will share it with all.
Thank you for
your support of Unique Logistics International. We appreciate and value
your business!
Best Regards
David Hickmott - Executive Vice President
ph#404-767-0500 (ext 306)
Mobile# 678-478-6604
Fax# 404-767-3319